FAQ

Net worth at the horizon: buy the home with an annuity mortgage and sell at the end, or pay cold rent on the same flat and put the same down payment into an ETF. Whoever pays less for housing each month invests the gap. Energy and household utilities are left out — they are similar on both paths. This is a calculation, not advice.

With the down payment in the ETF — the same share of purchase price plus closing costs the buyer pays in cash. The loan covers the rest, including closing costs. The monthly gap (mortgage payment plus owner costs minus cold rent) goes to whichever path is cheaper that month.

The loan is total cost minus equity. The first slider is that budget (purchase price plus closing costs). Closing-cost percent changes the purchase price, not the budget. Equity is a percent of total cost. Owner costs (maintenance, tax, building fees) are a fixed percent of the purchase price in euros, not of the mortgage payment and not of the current home value.

2027 is a forward path. History ends in 2025; after that every year uses the same prior: 2.5% home, 2.5% rent, 7% ETF, 4% mortgage, 2% inflation — regardless of district or fund. District, size, and Altbau/Neubau change the entry price and rent, not those rates. Before 2026 the sliders follow yearly series; S&P 500 and Emerging Markets then differ.

Start year, district, size, building, ETF, and horizon load purchase price, cold rent, rates, closing costs, and yearly shocks. Through 2025: Bestand €/m², asking rents, ETF net EUR, Destatis CPI, Bundesbank rates. After that, the forward rates above. Editing a slider detaches that value from the path.

Capital gains tax at 26.375% (25% plus solidarity surcharge, no church tax) on ETF gains only, after a 30% partial exemption for equity ETFs. The owner-occupied home sale is tax-free in the model. The cash path earns 0% and pays no CGT.

A third path: the same rent, but the down payment and monthly leftovers sit in cash at 0%. Chart, snapshot, and final stash gain a cash column. That is what you give up by neither buying nor investing.

It scatters yearly ETF, home, and rent returns around that year’s mean — but only from this calendar year onward. Finished years stay on the historical path. The headline figure and chart lines are medians (P50). The table below stays the path with no randomness. Win rates count paths, not a single break-even year.

The simulation runs in nominal euros. Display is start-year purchasing power (CPI). Contributions in the table stay nominal. Set inflation to 0 for nominal euros.